Notes on Life Insurance (Part One)

The text primarily covers actuarial formulas and concepts related to life insurance and financial mathematics, providing insights into the calculation of present values and probabilities for different scenarios. keywords: Makeham's Law, Interest and Discount Formulas, Actuarial Present Value, Variance of Payments, Whole Life Annuity, Deferred Insurance, Relations among Different Present Values, Decomposition of Term Insurance

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We will use the following:

Makeham's Law, μx=A+Bcx\mu_x=A+B c^x,

A=0.00022,B=2.7×10−6,c=1.124A=0.00022, \quad B=2.7 \times 10^{-6}, \quad c=1.124

So we know the following from the financial mathematics:

(1+i)(1−d)=1(1+i)(1-d) = 1

, where dd is the discount for the interests. We can assume that our interest is risk-free. And 1+i=eδ1+i = e^{\delta} so 1−d=e−δ1-d = e^{-\delta}.

For the nominal interests for nn period within the paid period, we will have (1+i(n)n)n=1+i(1+\frac{i^{(n)}}{n})^n = 1+i, and so

i(n)=n×[(1+i)1/n−1]i^{(n)} = n \times [(1+i)^{1/n}-1]

and

d(m)=n×[1−(1−d)1/n].d^{(m)}= n \times[1-(1-d)^{1/n}].

The present value of 11 unit of payment that is payable immediately upon death is a random variable ZZ.

Z=(11+i)Tx.=e−δTXZ = \left(\frac{1}{1+i}\right)^{T_x}.= e^{-\delta T_X}

.

The Actuarial Present Value is the expected value of ZZ, which is ETX[Z]\mathbb{E}_{T_X}[Z], which we can denote as Aˉx\bar{A}_x and here bar represents payable immediately upon death.

We know that TxT_x has a pdf fTx(t)=tpxμx+tf_{T_x}(t) = {}_tp_x \mu_{x+t} and so

Aˉx=∫0∞exp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+t dt\bar{A}_x = \int_{0}^{\infty} \exp(-\delta t){}_tp_x \mu_{x+t}\, dt

We can also compute the second moment of ZZ. We will have the following:

E[Z2]=E[exp⁡(−2δTx)]=∫0∞exp⁡(−2δt)tpxμx+t=2Aˉx,\mathbb{E}[Z^2] = \mathbb{E}[\exp(-2\delta T_x)] = \int_0^{\infty} \exp(-2\delta t) {}_tp_x \mu_{x+t}={ }^2 \bar{A}_x,

Here, the superscript is the coefficient of the rate of interest.

And we can represent our variance as

Var⁡[Z]=2Aˉx−(Aˉx)2\operatorname{Var}[Z] = {}^2 \bar{A}_x - (\bar{A}_x)^2

And for a constant SS, E[SZ]=SAˉx\mathbb{E}[SZ]= S \bar{A}_x and Var⁡[SZ]=S2(2Aˉx−(Aˉx)2).\operatorname{Var}[SZ] = S^2 ({}^2 \bar{A}_x - (\bar{A}_x)^2).

For any value xx, we want to find the cdf of ZZ, we notice that Pr⁡[Z≤x]=Pr⁡[exp⁡(−δTX)≤x]=Pr⁡[TX≥−1δln⁡x]=−ln⁡xδpx.\Pr[Z \le x] = \Pr[\exp(-\delta T_X) \le x] = \Pr[ T_X \ge -\frac{1}{\delta}\ln x] = {}_{-\frac{\ln x}{\delta}}p_{x}.

Now, instead of considering payment payable upon death. We consider payment payable at the end of the year of death. Then we will have

Z=(11+i)Kn+1=νKn+1Z = \left(\frac{1}{1+i}\right)^{K_n+1}=\nu^{K_n+1}

Ax=E[Z]=∑i=0∞νi+1i∣qx=νqx+ν21∣qx+ν32∣qx+...A_x=\mathbb{E}[Z] = \sum_{i=0}^{\infty}\nu^{i+1} {}_{i}{}_{|}q_x = \nu q_x + \nu^2 {}_1{}_{|}q_x + \nu^3 {}_2{}_{|}q_x+...

Notice that we have stripped off the overhead bar for AxA_x because we are considering payment at the end of the year of death.

Now similarly, we will have

2Ax=∑kν2(k+1)k∣qx{}^2 A_x= \sum_{k} \nu^{2(k+1)} {}_{k|}q_x

Now consider whole life annuity under the case of 1/m1/m-th.

Instead of having it to be paid at the end of the year, we can have it paid half a year, or even monthly or weekly. Then we will first consider Kx(m)K_{x}^{(m)}, where denotes that there are mm payments within the fiscal period, as the latest payment period where our insured individual lives. Then we will have

Kx(m)=1m⌊mTx⌋K_x^{(m)}=\frac{1}{m} \lfloor m T_x\rfloor

.

Example: Consider Tx=29.2039T_x = 29.2039, then Kx=29K_x = 29, Kx(4)=29,Kx(12)=29.16K_x^{(4)} = 29, K^{(12)}_x = 29.16...

And the pmf for Kx(m)K_x^{(m)} will be

Pr⁡[Kx(m)=k]=Pr⁡[⌊mTx⌋=km]=Pr⁡[km≤mTx≤km+1]=Pr⁡[k≤Tx≤k+1m]=k∣1mqx\Pr[K_x^{(m)} =k ] = \Pr[\lfloor m T_x \rfloor =km ] = \Pr[km \le m T_x \le km +1 ] = \Pr[k \le T_x \le k + \frac{1}{m}] = {}_{k|\frac{1}{m}}q_x

Now if our payment is paid at the end of the period when our insurance individual's death, then we will have the following:

Ax(m)=∑kνk+1mkm∣1mqxA_x^{(m)} = \sum_{k} \nu^{\frac{k+1}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}|\frac{1}{m}}q_x

And the second moment will be

2Ax(m)=∑kν2k+2mkm∣1mqx{}^2A_x^{(m)} = \sum_{k} \nu^{\frac{2k+2}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}|\frac{1}{m}}q_x

A recursive formula.

Sometimes, it's hard to determine the actuarial present value for payment expired at the end of the year in a forward manner. Thus, we need to consider a way of getting everything in a backward fashion. One way of doing this is with a life table.

Suppose we have a life table LxL_{x}, then we can find limiting age ω\omega such that Lω=0L_{\omega} =0 or close to zero.

Then we will assume that Aω−1=νA_{\omega-1} = \nu.

Then we will consider AxA_{x} for x<ω−1x < \omega-1, we will have

Ax=∑kνk+1k∣qxA_x = \sum_{k}\nu^{k+1} {}_{k|}q_{x}

We also know that k∣qx=kpx−k+1px=kpx−kpxpx+k=kpxqx+k{}_{k|}q_x= {}_{k}p_{x} - {}_{k+1}p_x = {}_k p_x - {}_{k}p_{x} p_{x+k} = {}_k p_x q_{x+k}

So

Ax=∑kkpxqx+kνk+1=qxν+∑k=1∞kpxqx+kνk+1A_x = \sum_{k}{}_k p_x q_{x+k} \nu^{k+1} = q_{x} \nu + \sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{}_k p_x q_{x+k} \nu^{k+1}

We also know that kpx=1pxk−1px+1{}_kp_{x} = {}_1p_{x}{}_{k-1}p_{x+1}

So we will have

Ax=qxν+px∑k=1∞k−1px+1qx+kνk+1=qxν+pxν∑k=0∞kpx+1qx+1+kνk+1=qxν+pxνAx+1A_x = q_{x} \nu + p_{x}\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}{}_{k-1}p_{x+1} q_{x+k} \nu^{k+1} \\= q_{x} \nu + p_{x}\nu\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}{}_{k}p_{x+1} q_{x+1+k} \nu^{k+1} \\ = q_x \nu + p_x \nu A_{x+1}

We can derive a similar formula for Ax(m)A_x^{(m)}. Consider

Ax(m)=∑k=0∞νk+1mkm∣1mqx=ν1m∣1mqx+ν1m∑k=1∞νkmkmpx1mqx+km=ν1m∣1mqx+1mpxν1m∑k=1∞νkmk−1mpx+1m1mqx+km=ν1m∣1mqx+1mpxν1m∑k=0∞νk+1mkmpx+1m1mqx+1m+km=ν1m∣1mqx+1mpxν1m∑k=0∞νk+1mkm∣1mqx+1mA_x^{(m)}= \sum_{k=0}^{\infty} \nu^{\frac{k+1}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}|\frac{1}{m}}q_{x} \\ = \nu^{\frac{1}{m}} {}_{|\frac{1}{m}}q_x + \nu^{\frac{1}{m}}\sum_{k=1}^\infty \nu^{\frac{k}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}}p_{x} {}_{\frac{1}{m}} q_{x+\frac{k}{m}}\\ = \nu^{\frac{1}{m}} {}_{|\frac{1}{m}}q_x + {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_{x}\nu^{\frac{1}{m}}\sum_{k=1}^\infty \nu^{\frac{k}{m}} {}_{\frac{k-1}{m}}p_{x+\frac{1}{m}}{}_{\frac{1}{m}} q_{x+\frac{k}{m}}\\=\nu^{\frac{1}{m}} {}_{|\frac{1}{m}}q_x + {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_{x}\nu^{\frac{1}{m}}\sum_{k=0}^\infty \nu^{\frac{k+1}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}}p_{x+\frac{1}{m}}{}_{\frac{1}{m}} q_{x+\frac{1}{m}+\frac{k}{m}}\\= \nu^{\frac{1}{m}} {}_{|\frac{1}{m}}q_x + {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_{x}\nu^{\frac{1}{m}}\sum_{k=0}^\infty \nu^{\frac{k+1}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}|\frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}

So

Ax(m)=ν1m∣1mqx+1mpxν1mAx+1m(m)A_x^{(m)} = \nu^{\frac{1}{m}} {}_{|\frac{1}{m}}q_x + {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_{x}\nu^{\frac{1}{m}}A_{x+\frac{1}{m}}^{(m)}

Let's consider a more generic case and here we will introduce some actuarial notations that are non standard. Let pmf be

f(k;x,n,m)={km∣1mqxk≤nm−1px+nk≥nmf(k; x, n, m) = \begin{cases} {}_{\frac{k}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_x & k \le nm-1 \\ p_{x+n} & k \ge nm\end{cases} g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x)=α∑i=0nm−1νt(k+1)/mim∣1mqx+βνtnnpxg(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t,x) = \alpha \sum_{i=0}^{nm-1} \nu^{t(k+1)/m} {}_{\frac{i}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_x + \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x}

Then we will have

g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x)−βνtnnpx=α∑i=0nm−1νt(i+1)/mim∣1mqxg(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t, x) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x} = \alpha \sum_{i=0}^{nm-1} \nu^{t(i+1)/m} {}_{\frac{i}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_x g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x)−βνtnnpx=α(νt/m∣1mqx−1mpxνt/mνtnn−1m∣1mqx+1m+1mpxνt/m∑i=0nm−1νt(i+1)/mim∣1mqx+1m)g(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t, x) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x} = \alpha \left(\nu^{t/m} {}_{| \frac{1}{m}}q_x - {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\nu^{tn} {}_{n-\frac{1}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\sum_{i=0}^{nm-1} \nu^{t(i+1)/m} {}_{\frac{i}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}\right) =α(νt/m∣1mqx−1mpxνt/mνtnn−1m∣1mqx+1m)+1mpxνt/mα∑i=0nm−1νt(i+1)/mim∣1mqx+1m=\alpha \left(\nu^{t/m} {}_{| \frac{1}{m}}q_x - {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\nu^{tn} {}_{n-\frac{1}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}\right)+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\alpha\sum_{i=0}^{nm-1} \nu^{t(i+1)/m} {}_{\frac{i}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}

We also know that

g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x+1m)−βνtnnpx+1m=α∑i=0nm−1νt(i+1)/mim∣1mqx+1mg(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t, x +\frac{1}{m}) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x+\frac{1}{m}} = \alpha \sum_{i=0}^{nm-1} \nu^{t(i+1)/m} {}_{\frac{i}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}

So we will have

g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x)−βνtnnpx=α(νt/m1mqx−1mpxνt/mνtnn−1m∣1mqx+1m)+1mpxνt/m(g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x+1m)−βνtnnpx+1m)g(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t, x) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x} = \alpha \left(\nu^{t/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\nu^{tn} {}_{n-\frac{1}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}\right)+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\left(g(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t, x +\frac{1}{m}) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x+\frac{1}{m}} \right) g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x)−βνtnnpx=α(νt/m∣1mqx−1mpxνt/mνtnn−1m∣1mqx+1m)+1mpxνt/m(g(α,β,n,m,ν,t,x+1m)−βνtnnpx+1m)g(\alpha, \beta, n,m, \nu , t,x) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x}= \alpha \left(\nu^{t/m} {}_{| \frac{1}{m}}q_x - {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\nu^{tn} {}_{n-\frac{1}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}\right)+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\left(g(\alpha, \beta, n, m, \nu, t, x +\frac{1}{m}) - \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x+\frac{1}{m}} \right)

Reducing unnecessary hyper-parameters, we will have

h(x)=ανt/m1mqx−α1mpxνt/mνtnn−1m∣1mqx+1m+1mpxνt/mh(x+1m)−νt/mβνtnnpx+βνtnnpxh(x)= \alpha\nu^{t/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \alpha{}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}\nu^{tn} {}_{n-\frac{1}{m}| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x+\frac{1}{m}}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}h(x+\frac{1}{m}) - \nu^{t/m}\beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x} + \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x} h(x)=ανt/m1mqx−ανtn+t/mn∣1mqx+1mpxνt/mh(x+1m)−νt/mβνtnnpx+βνtnnpxh(x) = \alpha\nu^{t/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \alpha\nu^{tn+t/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}h(x+\frac{1}{m}) - \nu^{t/m}\beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x} + \beta\nu^{tn} {}_np_{x}

For this formula, we can easily get the recursive formula for whole life insurance actuarial present value Ax(m)A_x^{(m)} We can do it by simply setting α=1\alpha =1 and β=0\beta =0 and sending n→∞n \to \infty, specifically, we have

∣νtn+t/mn∣1mqx∣≤∣ν∣tn+t/m\left|\nu^{tn+t/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}\right| \le |\nu|^{tn+t/m}

as nn goes to infinity, lim⁡n→∞∣ν∣tn+t/m=0\lim_{n\to \infty}|\nu|^{tn+t/m} = 0

And we know that Ax(m)A_x^{(m)} is the first moment so t=1t=1 and therefore we will have

Ax(m)=h(x)=ν1/m1mqx+1mpxν1/mh(x+1m)=ν1/m1mqx+1mpxν1/mAx+1m(m)A_x^{(m)} = h(x) = \nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x + {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}h\left(x+\frac{1}{m}\right) = \nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x + {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A_{x+\frac{1}{m}}^{(m)}

We can also get the formula for actuarial present value for term insurance Ax:n(m)A_{x:\angl{n}}^{(m)} by setting α=1\alpha=1 and β=0\beta=0 and t=1t=1 and not sending n→∞n \to \infty rather think nn as a hyper-parameter, so we will get

A(m)x:n1=h(x)=νt/m1mqx−νtn+t/mn∣1mqx+1mpxνt/mh(x+1m)=ν1/m1mqx−νn+1/mn∣1mqx+1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n1A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}=h(x) = \nu^{t/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \nu^{tn+t/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{t/m}h(x+\frac{1}{m}) = \nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{1}

We can also get the recursive formula for pure endowment by setting α=0\alpha=0 and β=1\beta=1 and t=1t=1

A(m)x:n     1=h(x)=1mpxν1/mh(x+1m)−ν1/mνnnpx+νnnpx=νnnpx=A(m)x+1m:n1A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1} = h(x) = {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}h(x+\frac{1}{m}) - \nu^{1/m}\nu^{n} {}_np_{x} + \nu^{n} {}_np_{x} = \nu^{n} {}_np_{x} = A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{\quad\quad1}

We can also get synthetic endowment (endowment insurance) recursive formula by setting α=β=t=1\alpha =\beta =t=1,

We will have

A(m)x:n=h(x)=ν1/m1mqx−νn+1/mn∣1mqx+1mpxν1/mh(x+1m)−νn+1/mnpx+νnnpx=ν1/m1mqx−νn+1/mn∣1mqx+1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n−νn+1/mnpx+νnnpxA^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}= h(x) = \nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}h(x+\frac{1}{m}) - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_np_{x} + \nu^{n} {}_np_{x}=\nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}} - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_np_{x} + \nu^{n} {}_np_{x}

One can also see that we have decomposition A(m)x:n=A(m)x:n1+A(m)x:n     1A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}} =A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1} + A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1}

Indeed, we have

A(m)x:n=ν1/m1mqx−νn+1/mn∣1mqx+1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n−1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n1+A(m)x:n     1A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}} = \nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}} - {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{\quad\quad 1} + A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1}

and we know

A(m)x:n1−1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n1=ν1/m1mqx−νn+1/mn∣1mqxA^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}- {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{1}= \nu^{1/m} {}_{ \frac{1}{m}}q_x - \nu^{n+1/m} {}_{n| \frac{1}{m}}q_{x}

So, we will have

A(m)x:n=A(m)x:n1−1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n1+1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n−1mpxν1/mA(m)x+1m:n1+A(m)x:n     1A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}} = A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}- {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{1}+ {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}} - {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{\quad\quad 1} + A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1}

Rearranging a little bit, we will have

A(m)x:n−A(m)x:n1−A(m)x:n     1=1mpxν1/m(A(m)x+1m:n−A(m)x+1m:n1−A(m)x+1m:n1)A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}} - A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}- A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1}= {}_{\frac{1}{m}}p_x\nu^{1/m}\left(A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}- A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{1} - A^{(m)}{}_{x+\frac{1}{m}:\angl{n}}^{\quad\quad 1}\right)

Since for xx big enough, we will have A(m)x:n−A(m)x:n1−A(m)x:n     1=0A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}} - A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}- A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1} = 0 (base case) and so A(m)x:n−A(m)x:n1−A(m)x:n     1=0A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}} - A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}- A^{(m)}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1} =0 for every xx.

For the continuous case, we can sending m→∞m\to \infty and get similar result:

Aˉx:n=Aˉx:n1+Aˉx:n     1\bar{A}{}_{x:\angl{n}} = \bar{A}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{1}+ \bar{A}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,\,1}

One thing is interesting about pure endowment is that its variance is associated with the probability of an individual's death more specifically, we have Ax:n    1=νnnpx=xEnA_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,1} = \nu^n{}_np_x = {}_xE_n

and

2Ax:n    1=ν2nnpx=νnxEn=x2En{}^2A_{x:\angl{n}}^{\,\,\,\,1} = \nu^{2n}{}_np_x = \nu^n{}_xE_n = {}^2_xE_n

And so the variance

Var⁡[Z]=x2En−(xEn)2=νnxEn−νnnpxxEn=xEnνn(1−npx)=xEnνnnqx\operatorname{Var}[Z] = {}^2_xE_n - ({}_xE_n)^2 = \nu^n{}_xE_n - \nu^n{}_np_x{}_xE_n = {}_xE_n\nu^n(1-{}_np_x{})={}_xE_n\nu^n{}_nq_x

as we can see that if nn is small and xx is small, then the variance is small. That is because when individuals are young, it's unlikely for them to die and so the payout is mostly determined (it will be paid). However, as people aging, the probability becomes larger and so it's hard to say exactly if the payout will come.

Deferred insurance.

Deferred insurance has payout at specific time frame u≤Tx≤u+nu \le T_x \le u +n.

More specifically the present value

Z={0Tx<u∧u+n<Txexp⁡(−δTx)u≤Tx≤u+nZ = \begin{cases}0 & T_x< u \land u+n < T_x \\ \exp(-\delta T_x) &u \le T_x \le u+n \end{cases}

and so the expected present value will be

u∣Aˉx:n1=∫uu+nexp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+t dt=∫0nexp⁡(−δt−δu)t+upxμx+u+t dt=exp⁡(−δu)upx∫0nexp⁡(−δt)tpx+uμx+u+t dt=uExAx+u:n1{}_u |\bar{A}_{x:\angl{n}}^1=\int_u^{u+n}\exp(-\delta t){}_tp_x \mu_{x+t}\, dt \\= \int_0^n \exp(-\delta t -\delta u){}_{t+u}p_x \mu_{x+u+t}\, dt \\= \exp(-\delta u){}_{u}p_{x}\int_0^n \exp(-\delta t){}_{t}p_{x+u} \mu_{x+u+t}\, dt\\ = {}_u E_x A_{x+u:\angl{n}}^{1}

In particular, we have

u∣Aˉx:n1=∫0u+nexp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+t dt−∫0uexp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+t dt=Aˉx:u+n1−Aˉx:u1{}_u |\bar{A}_{x:\angl{n}}^1 = \int_0^{u+n}\exp(-\delta t){}_tp_x \mu_{x+t}\, dt - \int_0^{u}\exp(-\delta t){}_tp_x \mu_{x+t}\, dt = \bar{A}_{x:\angl{u+n}}^1-\bar{A}_{x:\angl{u}}^1

which is quite analogous to a∣bqx=apx−a+bpx{}_{a|b}q_{x} = {}_a p_{x} - {}_{a+b} p_{x} but with reversing subscripts.

Decomposition of term insurance into deferred term insurance.

Consider

Aˉx:n1=∫0nexp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+t dt=∑i=0n−1∫ii+1exp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+t dt=∑k=0n−1k∣Aˉx:11\bar{A}_{x:\angl{n}}^1 = \int_0^n \exp(-\delta t) {}_tp_x\mu_{x+t} \, dt = \sum_{i=0}^{n-1} \int_{i}^{i+1}\exp(-\delta t) {}_tp_x\mu_{x+t} \, dt = \sum_{k=0}^{n-1}{}_k |\bar{A}_{x:\angl{1}}^1

If we send n→∞n\to \infty, we will have

Aˉx=∑k=0∞k∣Aˉx:11\bar{A}_{x} = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}{}_k |\bar{A}_{x:\angl{1}}^1

We will also have Ax=Ax:n1+n∣AxA_x = A_{x:\angl{n}}^1 + {}_n| A_{x}

We want to establish relations among AxA_x and Aˉx\bar{A}_x and Ax(m)A^{(m)}_x we start by assuming the UDD assumption. First notice that under UDD, we have

ddssqx=ddssqx=qx\frac{d}{ds}{}_sq_x = \frac{d}{ds}sq_x = q_x

for 0≤s<10\le s <1

and

ddssqxspx=μx+s  ⟹  qx=spxμx+s.\frac{\frac{d}{ds}{}_sq_x}{{}_sp_x} = \mu_{x+s} \implies q_x = {}_sp_x\mu_{x+s}. Aˉx=∫0∞exp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+tdt=∑k=0∞∫kk+1exp⁡(−δt)tpxμx+tdt=∑k=0∞kpxexp⁡(−δk)∫01exp⁡(−δt)tpx+kμx+k+tdt=∑k=0∞kpxexp⁡(−δk)qx+k∫01exp⁡(−δt)dt=1−exp⁡(−δ)δ∑k=0∞νkkpxqx+k=1−νδν∑k=0∞νk+1k∣qx=1−11+iδ11+iAx=iδAx.\bar{A}_x = \int_{0}^{\infty}\exp(-\delta t) {}_tp_x\mu_{x+t}dt\\ = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\int_k^{k+1}\exp(-\delta t) {}_tp_x\mu_{x+t}dt \\ = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}{}_kp_{x}\exp(-\delta k)\int_0^{1}\exp(-\delta t ) {}_{t}p_{x+k}\mu_{x+k+t}dt \\= \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}{}_kp_{x}\exp(-\delta k)q_{x+k}\int_0^{1}\exp(-\delta t ) dt \\=\frac{1-\exp(-\delta)}{\delta} \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{k} {}_kp_{x}q_{x+k} \\=\frac{1-\nu}{\delta \nu} \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{k+1} {}_{k|}q_{x}\\ = \frac{1-\frac{1}{1+i}}{\delta \frac{1}{1+i}} A_x = \frac{i}{\delta}A_x.

Now consider

Ax(m)=∑k=0∞νk+1mkm∣1mqx=∑k=0∞νk+1m(kmpx−k+1mpx)A_x^{(m)}= \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{\frac{k+1}{m}} {}_{\frac{k}{m}|\frac{1}{m}}q_x = \sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{\frac{k+1}{m}} \left({}_{\frac{k}{m}}p_x-{}_{\frac{k+1}{m}}p_x\right)

We know spx=1−sqx=1−sqx{}_sp_{x} = 1-{}_s q_{x} = 1-s q_x for 0≤s≤10\le s \le1 and so we will have

k+spx=kpxspx+k=kpx(1−sqx+k){}_{k+s}p_{x}= {}_{k}p_{x} {}_sp_{x+k} = {}_{k}p_{x}(1-sq_{x+k})

and so

kmpx−k+1mpx=(1−kmqx)−(1−k+1mqx)=1mqx{}_{\frac{k}{m}}p_x-{}_{\frac{k+1}{m}}p_x = (1-\frac{k}{m} q_x) -(1-\frac{k+1}{m}q_x)=\frac{1}{m}q_x

if k+1m≤1\frac{k+1}{m} \le 1. And so we will have

We also know that ∑i=0m−1νi+1m=ν1/m1−ν1−ν1m\sum_{i=0}^{m-1} \nu^{\frac{i+1}{m}} = \nu^{1/m}\frac{1-\nu}{1-\nu^{\frac{1}{m}}} and so we will have

Ax(m)=1−ν1−ν1m1ν∑k=0∞νk+1k∣px=i1−(11+i)1/m⋅(11+i)1/mAx=i(1+i)1/m−1Ax=ii(m)Ax.A_{x}^{(m)} = \frac{1-\nu}{1-\nu^{\frac{1}{m}}} \frac{1}{\nu}\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{k+1}{}_{k|}p_x\\ =\frac{i}{1-\left(\frac{1}{1+i}\right)^{1/m}}\cdot (\frac{1}{1+i})^{1/m}A_x = \frac{i}{(1+i)^{1/m}-1} A_x = \frac{i}{i^{(m)}}A_x.

Yes I have finished this exercise.

We can approximate the following for term insurance with payment upon death:

Aˉx:n≈iδAx:n1+nEx.\bar{A}_{x:\angl{n}} \approx \frac{i}{\delta} A_{x:\angl{n}}^1 + {}_nE_x.

Claim acceleration approach.

Let's assume that the insured individual's death occurs uniformly across the year, then for Ax(m)A_{x}^{(m)} the payout most likely happen at the middle of the year and so if m=2k+1m=2k+1, then k+1=m+12k+1=\frac{m+1}{2} will be the time when the claim is paid. So we will have the following approximation:

Ax(m)≈νm+12mqx+ν1+m+12m1∣qx+ν2+m+12m2∣qx+...=∑k=0∞νm+12m+kk∣qx=ν−m+12m∑k=0∞νk+1k∣qx≈(1+i)m−12mAxA_x^{(m)} \approx \nu^{\frac{m+1}{2m}} q_x +\nu^{1+\frac{m+1}{2m}} {}_{1|}q_x+\nu^{2+\frac{m+1}{2m}} {}_{2|}q_x+... \\ =\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{\frac{m+1}{2m}+k}{}_{k|}q_x\\=\nu^{\frac{-m+1}{2m}}\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\nu^{k+1}{}_{k|}q_x\\\approx(1+i)^{\frac{m-1}{2m}}A_x

If we sent m→∞m\to \infty, we will have

Aˉx=(1+i)1/2Ax\bar{A}_{x}=(1+i)^{1/2}A_x

And we will also have the same with term insurance payable upon 1/m1/m-th within the year.

Aˉx:n1≈(1+i)12Ax:n1+nEx\bar{A}{}_{x:\angl{n}}^1 \approx (1+i)^{\frac{1}{2}}A{}_{x:\angl{n}}^1 + {}_n E_x